Adani Deep Dive

by Overheard Wall Street May 1, 2023

Overview

For some, he's the devil in disguise, striking fear into the hearts of overhyped companies. But for others, he's a hero, fearlessly exposing the truth and keeping Wall Street honest. Who is Nathan Anderson and what exactly does he do for a living?

Anderson is a notorious short seller, a man who bets against the stock of a company and profits when its price drops. To those he targets, he's a mercenary, profiting from their misfortune. But to those who take a closer look, he's a necessary evil, a watchdog in a world where hype and greed can run rampant.

Critics argue that short selling can harm a company and its stakeholders. But supporters argue that it's a critical part of market function, exposing flaws and overvaluation, and ultimately making the market more efficient and fair.

So, is Nathan Anderson Wall Street's resident rogue, or its knight in shining armor? The answer, like much in the financial world, is not so simple. But one thing is for sure - Anderson’s latest project, exposing what he calls the largest corporate fraud in history, is likely to make big waves.

Forensic Accounting/Short Selling

Forensic accountants have been in the game for a minute. While most finance bros see accountants as total nerds, these forensic specialists nevertheless play a pivotal role in shorting stocks and keeping financial markets healthy.

Forensic accountants use detective-like tactics to dig deep into financial statements and transactions to uncover any illegalities. Some of the most significant red flags short sellers look for include strange trading patterns, unusual price movements, and insider trading activities.

Ultimately, many forensic accountants at short seller firms produce rigorous and detailed research. Think of them as a full-fledged novel, with hundreds of pages of evidence, insights and conclusions.

These forensic accountants will tell you they’re all about protecting investors and holding those who engage in illegal short selling practices accountable. These caped crusaders might be fighting the good fight, but they make no bones about also betting against the stocks they're investigating.

Short sellers are the rebels of Wall Street, donning the mantle of David as they take on the corporate Goliaths. They've got one powerful weapon in their arsenal – the power to send share prices tumbling with just a whisper of a rumor or an unverified report. But as the short selling game heats up, many are starting to question whether these rogue traders need a bit more regulation.

Hindenburg

Nathan Anderson, a former CPA who uses his sharp investigative skills to uncover the dark underbelly of corporate accounting, founded Hindenburg Research from his New York City apartment in 2018. This small, but mighty, New York investment firm has taken its cue from the legendary Hindenburg disaster and isn't afraid to go after big targets.

Armed with their extensive research and a deep understanding of the financial markets, they've taken on some of the most fraudulent and unscrupulous players in the game. His biting reports have garnered widespread media attention and ignited government inquiries.

Hindenburg made its name exposing shady crypto firms and unprofitable electric vehicle companies, but when they dropped their latest research on Adani, the firm claimed they were exposing the largest corporate fraud in history.

Hindenburg Research wasn't just feeling particularly altruistic when they embarked on their two-year deep dive into the Adani Group - they had a monetary motive behind their research. Anderson also has a network of powerful allies who wield their financial muscle to place strategic short bets.

Big-shot short sellers, like the notorious Hindenburg, are known for quietly amassing their positions before striking like a viper and exposing the flaws of the targeted company. But in India, the game of hide-and-seek becomes a little more challenging for these investment firms, as the Indian securities rules have made it almost impossible to keep their short positions under wraps.

Adani

Gautam Adani is an Indian billionaire entrepreneur and the chairman of the Adani Group, one of India's largest conglomerates. The Adani Group is one of the largest conglomerates in India, with a presence in various sectors including ports and logistics, agribusiness, energy, defense, and real estate.

Investors see significant potential in the Adani Group given India’s seismic shift towards industrialization. India is expected to surpass China in April 2023 as the largest country in the world by population. But India’s economy still remains relatively agricultural-based.

The country has emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, with a rapidly expanding middle class and a growing consumer market. One of the key drivers of industrial growth in India has been the information technology sector, which has grown at an unprecedented rate in recent years.

The country has also become a hub for foreign direct investment, with multinational corporations setting up operations in various sectors, including automobiles, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.

Adani Group is single-handedly rewriting the script of what it means to be a player in the emerging markets. With a portfolio that spans across multiple industries, Adani has proven that they are not afraid to take risks and consolidate their power with debt.

Some investors are torn on Adani’s questionable governance practices. While some traditional blue-chip investors express concerns, others think that Adani’s fearless approach to growth and a can-do attitude has the potential to make India the next South Korea.

Adani may be dubbed as "India's Rockefeller", but his rise to the top is far from conventional. Unlike Rockefeller, Adani didn't start from a position of privilege, but from humble beginnings. This rags-to-riches story is what endears Adani to many Indians, making him the perfect mirror image of India's current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

The Indian Prime Minister and billionaire industrialist share more than just a home state, their paths to power have been intertwined and their interests aligned. Adani's empire has been strategically built around the very industries Modi is pushing forward, proving that success is sweeter when you have a friend in high places.

Given Adani’s influence on Indian business and society, some see short seller attacks as harmful not just to the company but the country as a whole. Some experts think Adani’s shady business practices were an ‘open secret’ in India and that it is nevertheless telling that the report that shook the empire came from outside the country.

Hindenburg’s Findings

The explosive new findings from Hindenburg Research reveal that the Adani empire is not quite as squeaky clean as it may seem. The report claims that Vinod Adani, Gautam Adani’s brother, and his cronies control over three dozen shell companies in Mauritius, with other entities “surreptitiously controlled” in the UAE, Singapore, and the Caribbean.

But it’s not just the number of shell companies that’s staggering, it’s what they’re being used for. Hindenburg alleges that these entities have no visible operations, employees, addresses, or online presence, but have been used to move billions of dollars into Adani’s companies, making them appear financially healthy and solvent.

Hindenburg’s report also states that the Adani Group has been under investigation for major government frauds, with “obvious accounting irregularities and sketchy dealings” seemingly enabled by non-existent financial controls. This, combined with the company’s high debt, tight family control, and high valuation, is causing Hindenburg to raise some serious red flags.

The recent report has been a real buzz-kill for the Adani conglomerate. In just two short weeks, the findings have sent their pre-Hindenburg value plummeting by a whopping $110 billion, causing some of their bonds to hit rock bottom and forcing the company to cancel their planned stock and bond offerings.

The opposition party in India's Parliament is also calling for an investigation into the tycoon's connections with Modi.

Adani hit back with a 413-page response to the report, expressing their shock and disbelief at the accusations made by Hindenburg, who they dubbed the "Bernie Madoff of Manhattan." In reference to the infamous financier and convicted fraudster, Adani wasn't mincing words in their defense against these allegations.

Adani Enterprises' share sale went up in smoke just days after they managed to raise funds in a $2.5 billion bonanza. Unfortunately, the party was cut short as the company pulled the plug on the sale amid intense scrutiny.

As if that wasn't enough, Credit Suisse threw a wrench in the works by stopping acceptance of Adani bonds as collateral. To top it all off, credit ratings agency S&P put the icing on the cake by downgrading its credit outlook on two of Adani's companies.

Short Selling - A Necessary Evil?

Short sellers have been making a living off of betting against stocks for as long as the stock market has existed. But the new age of activism has brought a whole new level of intensity to the game. These activists spend months carefully crafting their case against a company, only to unleash a barrage of criticism in the form of scathing reports.

But short sellers have drawn unwanted attention, including by the SEC and Department of Justice. The authorities are searching for evidence that these activists may have used unethical tactics, such as "smash and grab," where they short stocks, publish negative information, and cash in before their false reports are exposed.

Like it or not, short sellers are here to stay and are only getting more sophisticated with more money on the line. Despite the headaches they cause for overvalued companies, even the biggest bulls on Wall Street can't deny their importance in keeping markets in check. So, embrace the short seller, Wall Street - they're here to keep you honest.